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New Yorkers will find out who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who governs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democrats against each other. The election has become an acrimonious face-off, laced with accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and pledged to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's power moves, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to voters' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the party arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, if the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce the party's current model of considered, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York rejection of Mamdani's optimistic platform could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his readiness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, Cuomo, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani personally. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and warned to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should not have reached to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, started his mayoral bid in last year, few had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The classic political insider, he had married a Kennedy and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

Mamdani, who was elected to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after footage surfaced suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in recent years. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is committing genocide in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd